By: Russell Dye
The Georgia Republican Party has been king of the political hill in our state since 2002 when Governor Sonny Perdue was elected by a 4-point margin to become Georgia’s first Republican governor since Reconstruction. Since that time, the Georgia GOP has grown into a large and finely tuned political machine that has gone on to take control of: the Georgia House of Representatives, Senate, every statewide office, both United States Senate seats, and nine out of fourteen United State House of Representative seats. Most Georgia Republicans feel confident that things are well in hand going into 2014 midterms, but not everyone feels the same way.
Nevertheless, the Georgia governor’s race and Georgia’s United States Senate race catch the eye of political pundits around the country and cause some members of the GOP to worry that their party’s political power may not be as dominant as once thought:. Both races provide an opportunity for Democrats to possibly steal away two seats once considered “safe” from the GOP’s grasp. However, only the U.S. Senate race should actually provide Georgia Republicans cause to worry. Therefore, the Georgia GOP’s 2014 strategy for keeping the state completely red should be simple – focus on keeping Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat red, because Gov. Deal is safe.
It is understandable for Democrats to believe that they actually have a chance at stealing away the Georgia governorship from Gov. Deal and the GOP, especially given the recent weather mistakes made by Govr Deal, but Sen. Jason Carter’s challenge to the incumbent will just not be enough to win. Carter trails in fundraising and faces the extremely hard task of separating himself from his unpopular grandfather, former President Jimmy Carter in the eyes of voters. Polls show Sen. Carter trailing by a wide margin, and one could assume that in a midterm election with no presidential election on the ballot, Carter’s chances of overtaking a sitting governor in a historically red state are poor. With this in mind, Georgia Republicans can rest assured that the governorship will probably not be won by Carter, and should focus their attention squarely on the U.S. Senate race.
Georgia’s U.S. Senate race is another story, though. Since the announcement of Sen. Saxby Chambliss’s retirement, the GOP has been bogged down in a tightly contested and heated primary featuring eight candidates, including three sitting U.S. congressmen. As the GOP struggles to unite behind one candidate, Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn has quietly raised more than 3 million dollars to fund her campaign and vastly united her party’s support for her U.S. Senate run. She has painted herself as a problem solver, bipartisan worker, and political outsider, all while the Republicans bicker among themselves on who is and will be the biggest “conservative” if elected. If the GOP continues to act in a disjointed fashion, Republicans in Georgia may actually lose their once thought impenetrable U.S. Senate seat to a rookie Democratic politician.
Nunn faces an easier track to victory than Carter as well. Unlike Carter, who has to face a sitting incumbent in his race, Nunn does not have to overcome the extremely hard-to-conquer incumbency advantage, which vastly increases her chances of victory. Furthermore, Nunn could have the benefit of running against an unpopular or controversial challenger in the form of either Congressmen Paul Broun, Phil Gingery, or former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel. Polling shows Nunn ahead of all three candidates in the race right now, but one could assume that if the GOP tagged a less controversial candidate like Congressman Jack Kingston or businessman David Purdue, Nunn’s chances of victory would decrease.
Georgia Republicans are in a tough spot. How should they handle both races that feature serious Democratic challengers? It is obvious that they should focus on the U.S. Senate race more than the governor’s race, because simply hoping for the Party’s base to bring victory in both races is an extremely risky strategy to take. If the GOP wants to maintain its dominant position in Georgia politics, it is essential that it does not let one of Georgia’s U.S. Senate seats turn blue for the next six years. Not only would it be bad for Georgia Republicans, but also it would be bad for the GOP nationally, especially given their emerging chance of taking back the Senate majority in the 2014 midterms. However, it is still essential for Georgia Republicans to hold both seats, because anything less than a victory in both races would be considered an extreme failure and utter disappointment. Georgia Republicans do not want to go back to the old days of Democratic dominance just yet, but losing the governorship and one U.S. Senate seat could be the first domino to fall in a reemerging Georgia Democratic Party.
