The Path to 51

By: Russell Dye

 

                                                                                                                                   

The Republican Party must win at least six seats currently being held by Democrats, without being upset in any races of their own, in order for the GOP to take back the United States Senate majority in the 2014 midterms.  Though the Republican Party has not had much luck in the past few election cycles, the task of winning back the Senate may not be as hard as some imagine. Currently up for grabs in the 2014 midterms are 21 seats up for reelection that are presently held Democratic senators. Of those twenty-one seats available, the GOP has an opportunity to snag at least seven seats currently held by Democratic senators from states that Gov. Mitt Romney won against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election. These seven states, which the GOP absolutely needs to win at least six seats from in order to secure a majority, are: Arkansas, Alaska, Montana, North Carolina, Louisiana, West Virginia, and South Dakota. So how will each state shape up? Who will win? Who are the challengers? Let’s find out.

                                                                                                                                   

Arkansas

 

 

 

 

 

 

Incumbent: Mark Pryor (D) vs. GOP Challenger: Rep. Tom Cotton (R)

Sen. Pryor is arguably one of the most susceptible Senators on the list of Republican targets. He is plagued by an ever-growing Republican voting bloc in Arkansas, challenged by a popular United States Representative in that of Tom Cotton, and not even extremely well-liked within his own party. This should be an easy pick-up for Republicans if everything goes to according plan.

Winner: Tom Cotton (R.)

                                                                                                                                   

Alaska

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Incumbent: Mark Begich (D.) vs. GOP Challengers: Joe Miller, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, & Dan Sullivan (R.)

In a state that generally votes in a supremely red fashion, it is shocking that Sen. Begich has a job. However, in a race without a front-runner on the Republican ticket, it is hard to determine who will win. Polling shows that Alaskans are more likely to vote for a Republican than Democrat in the Senate race, but in head-to-head races, Begich narrowly defeats all three GOP challengers.

Winner: Toss-up

                                                                                                                                   

Montana

 

 

 

 

 

 

Incumbent: Open vs. GOP Challenger: Rep. Steve Daines (R.)

Since the time former Sen. Max Baucus decided to step down from his Senate post and pursue a career as the United States Ambassador to China, the GOP has been chomping at the bit to win his old seat. Popular Representative Steve Daines should have no problem winning this seat for the GOP, even if Lt. Gov. John Walsh (D.) challenges him in the general election.

Winner: Rep. Steve Daines (R.)

                                                                                                                                   

North Carolina

 

 

 

 

 

 

Incumbent: Kay Hagan (D.) vs. GOP Challenger: Thom Tillis (R.)

With an approval rating of only 39 percent, Kay Hagan is vulnerable to losing her seat in the Tar-Heel State. However, with a crowded GOP field, and Thom Tillis having recently emerged as the front-runner, Hagen still has a chance to keep her seat blue. Polling has shown the race to be a virtual toss-up.

Winner: Toss-up

                                                                                                                                   

Louisiana

 

 

 

 

 

 

Incumbent: Mary Landrieu (D.) vs. GOP Challenger: Rep. Bill Cassidy (R.)

In another state that consistently votes Republican, it is hard to see why Sen. Landrieu has kept her seat for so long. However, as a staunch supporter of Obamacare, Senator Landrieu seems tied up in a close race with Rep. Bill Cassidy. How much of a factor will healthcare reform play into the election? It is simply too close to call.

Winner: Toss-up

                                                                                                                                   

West Virginia

 

 

 

 

 

 

Incumbent: Open vs. GOP Challenger: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R.)

West Virginia will be very much in play for the GOP to win with recent announcement of the retiring of Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller. Current United States Representative Shelley Moore Capito should not have a hard time winning this seat for the GOP, no matter who her challenger may be.

Winner: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R.)

                                                                                                                    

South Dakota

 

 

 

 

 

 

Incumbent: Open vs. GOP Challenger: Mike Rounds. (R.)

South Dakota should provide the GOP with another easy win. With the retiring of former Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson, and the availability of a top-tier GOP candidate in the form of popular, former Gov. Mike Rounds, the Republican Party will surely pick up another seat from “The Mount Rushmore State.”

Winner: Mike Rounds (R.)

 

                                                                                                                                   

Provided this list is accurate and the Republican Party does indeed win seats  in Arkansas, Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota, the GOP will still be two seats short of a majority. That being said, it will be completely necessary for the GOP to win at least two seats from toss-up states mentioned above, in order to secure the ultimate goal of winning back to Senate; however, the GOP cannot afford to lose any of the seats they currently hold either. States such as Georgia and Kentucky are currently on the radar of Democratic strategists who believe that the Democratic Party may be able to steal two additional seats from these vulnerable Republican states.

 

At the end of the day, the Republican Party has a great opportunity to win back the Senate for the first time in the Obama presidency. In doing so, it could provide Republicans with the opportunity to make Obama even more of a lame duck president. We are a long way off from election night 2014, but as we all know, anything can happen with the Republican Party in elections, and these races are guaranteed to make for some very exciting entertainment in the months ahead.