By: John Vaughan
As we stumble towards the 2014 election season, the Georgia Democratic Party remains somewhat in limbo. Party organizational problems at the state level and a lack of formidable candidates have left the Democrats in a tricky situation. Changing demographics and a population influx have established new bases of support for them, yet they are missing the candidates necessary to align the voting blocs. As the Democratic Party enjoys success at the national level courtesy of President Obama, the Georgia faction is struggling to be competitive in statewide elections.
The Senate race between (most likely) Michelle Nunn and her GOP contender will be nasty and expensive while heavily involving the national media. There are a range of opinions on Nunn’s political appeal due to her political pedigree, yet her progressive platforms and name recognition will almost certainly propel her into the nomination.
Though a Nunn victory seems unlikely in this election, the Senate race is likely to feature a race highlighting the changing demographics of the state and will give some clear indications on the future of Georgia politics. It would seem that Nunn’s fundraising and publicity efforts will be supplemented by national interest in a Democratic Senate stronghold. On the other hand, one can almost rest assured that the Georgia Democrats’ party problems will be exposed in the gubernatorial race.
So far, only former DeKalb County Commissioner and State Senator Connie Stokes has declared her intention seek the Democratic nomination to challenge Governor Nathan Deal. Former Atlanta mayor Shirley Franklin and State Senator Jason Carter (grandson of former president Jimmy Carter) are among those mentioned as contenders for the Governor’s Mansion. Current Atlanta mayor Kasim Reed was once considered the most formidable Democratic candidate, but he declined a gubernatorial bid to run for a return to City Hall.
Thus, Stokes is the only Democratic candidate with both feet in the election. Stokes served six years in the Georgia State Senate and unsuccessfully ran twice for Congress. She lacks the statewide name recognition enjoyed by two of the three Republican candidates. Governor Deal and State School Superintendent John Barge recently received increased national attention following the Common Core debate, while Barge made a name for himself during the T-SPLOST debate.
Further, Reed’s dedication to bipartisanship and cooperation with Deal have been well documented in the media, thus draining a strong source of support for a Democratic challenger. At the moment, Reed is the face of the Democratic Party within the state; perhaps his career will best be aided by another opportunity to further establish himself as a proponent of bipartisanship.
Without Reed’s support and strong financial backing from the state party, Stokes and her competition face an uphill battle to unseat Deal. In the 2014 cycle, no Democratic candidate other than Kasim Reed or Roy Barnes has the potential to truly take on the Republican nominee.
Obviously, a tough Republican primary for Deal against Barge and Dalton mayor David Pennington could usurp some of Deal’s $1.1 million war chest. Regardless, the Democratic candidate will have a hard time fundraising at that level without help from Reed (who has long passed the million-dollar mark in an essentially unopposed election).
How, then, can any Democrat be competitive in the gubernatorial election, whether eventually going up against Deal or one of his challengers?
Consider this: in 2010, Deal defeated former Governor Roy Barnes by a 53-43 percent margin (approximately 250,000 votes). Fundraising in the 2010 election was essentially equal (maybe slightly favoring Barnes) and featured contributions north of $2.5 million for both candidates.
At present, the state’s wealth and population is increasingly concentrated in the booming Metro Atlanta area, especially Cobb, Gwinnett, Forsyth and (at least the north part of) Fulton. In the 2010 election, Deal carried Barnes’ home county of Cobb with 54 percent of the vote; he took 58 percent in Gwinnett. It’s hard to imagine Connie Stokes will fare any better than Barnes as a former DeKalb representative. The GOP will obviously fare well in these areas again without an extremely popular local name to challenge Deal. Once again, conventional wisdom and campaign coffers would indicate that only Reed could potentially make the stars align for the Democrats, and he has made it clear that 2014 is not that opportunity.
