By Irene Wright
The upcoming presidential election will be monumental in setting the stage for the future of politics in America. First and foremost, it is occurring during a global pandemic that has slowed campaigning, changed voting practices, and exposed weak spots in America’s healthcare system and economy. It is also taking place after a summer of civil unrest across the country during what could be described as a second civil rights movement. This election will determine how the government will respond to racial issues as well as the future of policing in the coming years. While many states are almost guaranteed to vote one way or another, purple (or swing) states have the potential to determine who lives in the White House for the next four years by extremely close margins. One of the most influential purple states, Wisconsin, faced its own moment of racial unrest in August of 2020, and the response could potentially determine the outcome of the election.
Kenosha, Wisconsin lies just 40 miles south of Milwaukee, a city that gained notoriety in 2013 as “America’s most segregated metropolitan area” according to Business Insider. While they may have lost that title in the years that followed, the statistical divide that earned them the distinction has not improved. Kenosha mimics Milwaukee in their racial divide on a smaller scale. Out of the about 100,000 residents, only 12% are people of color, and the majority live in one low-income neighborhood. This divide reinforces the often overlooked racism ingrained in the state and in many other Great Lake states. NPR Milwaukee claimed in 2019 that the twelve states in the Midwest—Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri—all have obvious racial disparities in employment, health, education, and homeownership. Historically, racism has been associated with southern states, but the Midwest, and Wisconsin specifically, have been housing racial inequalities for just as long. A report from UCLA in 2015 found that high schools in Milwaukee suspended Black students at a higher rate than anywhere else in the country. An American Community Survey in 2018 found that the unemployment rate for Black people in Wisconsin was nearly three times that of the majority white population. But the racial conflict in Wisconsin is not limited to systemic and economic issues. In 2019, Wisconsin housed 15 of the nation’s 920 registered hate groups, up from 11 in 2015. This includes an active Ku Klux Klan group in Mercer, Wisconsin, as identified by the Southern Poverty Law Center, which has been actively trying to recruit members in northern Wisconsin and neighboring states.
So while the rest of the country might have been surprised by the political response to racial unrest in Wisconsin, many Wisconsinites were not. Madison, the state’s capital, experienced the shooting of unarmed, Black, 19-year-old Tony Terrell Robinson Jr. by police in 2015. This incident followed the killing of Mike Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, and Eric Garner in New York City, and many expected Madison to be the next spark in the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. But, after just a single walk-out protest, predominantly by high school students, the state quickly dismissed the shooting as justifiable and the family settled out of court with the city for $3.35 million.
The situation in Kenosha mimicked those in Minneapolis and Portland, if on a smaller scale. While there was justifiable outrage at the shooting of Jacob Blake, Democratic community leaders found it hard to condemn the protesters for fear of being seen as soft on crime despite supporting the protesters’ message. The question Kenosha now faces is not whether there is a race problem in Wisconsin, but which political party should be chosen to address it.
Wisconsin has maintained its identity as a high impact swing state, despite voting for Democratic candidates in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections. National campaigns watched and analyzed it closely leading up to the last presidential election. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel called it a “tipping point state.” Wisconsin had a serious impact on the 2016 election when voters leaned slightly right, and Trump won by 0.7% of the total vote. Commentators attributed this win to rural voters not finding Clinton likable, but this is likely not the case for Joe Biden, who meets the criteria of being a relatively moderate, straight, white man. The urban and rural communities of Wisconsin have been at odds in nearly every election, with Madison and Milwaukee voting blue and much of the northern half of the state voting red, so it is the communities in-between that ultimately decide where the state’s electoral votes go. These in-between districts are places such as Kenosha with small Black communities in close proximity to Milwaukee. The state showed their displeasure with the current administration in the 2018 Midterms when incumbent governor and previous Republican presidential candidate Scott Walker lost the gubernatorial race to Democratic candidate Tony Evers. Evers won Kenosha County with 50.7% of the vote after Trump won that same county in 2016 with 47.2% of the vote. Governor Evers won multiple counties that had voted for Trump in 2016, but both the State House and Senate remained in Republican control, further solidifying the division of the Wisconsin electorate.
Following the destruction in Kenosha, both major-party presidential candidates visited the town despite being explicitly asked not to. In an open letter, Governor Evers stated that he did not want either candidate to come to the city. Both candidates visited, making public appearances and speaking with members of the community. While the Biden campaign focused on speaking with the family of Jacob Blake and visiting a local church, the Trump campaign held a law-enforcement roundtable and defended “law and order” and the failure to arrest a white anti-protester before he shot protesters, all while refusing to mention Jacob Blake during the entire visit. Campaigning in Wisconsin has been limited due to the global pandemic, so the impromptu visits to Kenosha from both parties will likely be the clearest picture voters will have of how each candidate will handle racial conflict once in office.
In 2016, Trump won Kenosha County by just 255 votes, and David Schaper from NPR believes that voting will tip the other way in 2020. After seeing the pain and devastation in their town, it is likely that even white voters in Kenosha will align themselves with the Democrats this year. If enough of the borderline counties in Wisconsin choose a change in leadership, the state is likely to vote blue, potentially pushing Biden to the 270 electoral college votes he needs. This election is about many things, but racial issues will be at the forefront for conflicted voters on November 3rd.