By: Shornmia KC
A tour guide sits on the steps of the Citadel in Cairo waiting for visitors. The price of a full tour of the Citadel used to be about 30 USD, but now he simply asks “what do you have in your wallet?” and negotiates the price. A cruise captain on the Nile complains that there used to be around 200 cruise boats on the Nile giving a tour of Lower to Upper Egypt, but now there are around 50, if not less. Increased unemployment, economic stagnation, and instability is threatening a rational and fair political process in Egypt.
Muhammad Morsi won a free and democratic presidential election against Ahmad Shafiq, the former prime minister under recently ousted dictator Hosni Mubarak, with 51 percent of the votes.He was in office for almost a year in June 2013 when the streets and subways became littered with activists asking Egyptians to sign a petition charging Morsi with being “a failure in all the meanings of the word … unfit to administer a country the size of Egypt,” and demanding Morsi to leave office. By the end of June, three million people in Cairo, three million in Alexandria, a Brotherhood stronghold, and half a million in Upper Egypt, the rural area of Egypt where traditional groups like the Brotherhood tend to have a stronghold, signed the petition.
About a week before the planned date of the revolution—June 30, the one-year anniversary of Morsi’s presidency—Morsi attempted to quell the masses. Crowds gathered in local cafes, young people opened their car doors, Morsi blaring on the stereo; even soccer matches were put on hold—such was the moment’s magnitude Egyptians forgot their favorite sport. Nonetheless, at the end of a tedious three hours Morsi left an impression on very few. The revolution began almost immediately. On the third of July, General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the darling of Cairans, came on television and effectively ousted Morsi from office.
The fear now is that Egypt is descending into its old ways. The frustration of the past three years has culminated into apathy for many Egyptians who simply want to return to earning their livelihood. The danger of this mindset is that they are no longer actively seeking a good leader; instead, they are ready to settle.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces set the stage for General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to announce his candidacy for president, calling this decision “a mandate and an obligation” demanded by “broad masses” of the public. When Sisi went on television and ousted Morsi, he became Cairo’s new hero, their saving grace. He still runs on that fuel. The army’s approval ratings are at an astounding 90 percent, and Sisi, as the head of the armed forces, rides that wave of popularity. Sisi enjoys a level of admiration not seen since Gamal Abdel Nasser, who ushered in Egyptian independence. If Sisi runs, he will undoubtedly win by a landslide.
If Sisi chooses to run, he will face little opposition. There are candidates like Hamdeen Sabahi, a left-wing Egyptian politician, who was the second runner-up in the last presidential elections. However, Sisi is Goliath compared to anyone else in the race. Most left-wing parties aren’t very organized, especially now with their leaders in jail. One of the most well-established political parties in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood. After Mubarak left office, the Brotherhood emerged as the most organized political party and won the 2012 bid for presidency with Morsi as the presidential candidate. Soon after, however, the Brotherhood lost popularity along with Morsi. Now, the current government labels the Brotherhood a terrorist organization. The new government has jailed, prosecuted, or exiled approximately 1,000 of the top-tier leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood. It has frozen the assets of more than 700 Brotherhood members, and the Brotherhood’s social program, including schools and hospitals, is now under state control. Most senior leaders, including former president Morsi, are awaiting trials on charges of inciting violence or murder. The Brotherhood proves disillusioned with the political process. They vowed to boycott elections sponsored by the current army-backed government. Their absence will further ensure Sisi’s inevitable victory.
The Brotherhood is still staging protests, despite the fact that since the bombing on Dec. 24 they have become an outlawed organization. However, these protests are seldom met with enthusiasm in Cairo. People are breeding resentment, not sympathy, for political activism.
As current government descends back to the days of monochrome media and muted political activism, free speech is fast eroding. The state actively tracks social media; there are warnings that any internet posts that “incite violence” embody grounds for an arrest. The new constitutional referendum passed in January of 2013 is reminiscent of the constitution under Mubarak. For instance, it allows the military to prosecute civilians for attacks on army personnel or institutions. The government is also silencing opposition from the Muslim Brotherhood and other activists. Almost a dozen of the young liberal activists who organized the protests in Tahrir during summer 2013 watch the current situation from jail. Journalists critical of the government, Al Jazeera reporters among them, are in captivity. Bassem Yousef, a popular satirist known as the Egyptian Jon Stewart, labels the situation a witch hunt generating fear of state power. The government’s grip is likely to get tighter. In Sinai, the unruly desert between Israel and Egypt where the military and police have little control, terrorism thrives; terrorist groups, some aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood (according to state media), are gaining a foothold and inciting violence. Threats of terrorism and attacks like the one that rocked a checkpoint targeting the Brotherhood in Giza on Feb. 7 serve to justify tightened reins by the current government.
Nonetheless, the new constitution is definitely an improvement from the 1971 constitution that former president Hosni Mubarak used until the revolution of 2011, or the 2012 constitution pushed forward by former president Moors in cahoots with his Muslim Brotherhood allies. This new constitution promises education, health-care, shelter, basic freedom of speech and essential human rights. However, there are no guarantees. The new constitution promises freedom and basic human rights, but civilians can be tried in a military or imperial court. It promises education for all, but there is no way to ensure that the state will actually keep its promise to allot 4 percent of GDP to education. Liberty of speech remains a freedom on paper, but the protection of “national security” provides the government a gaping loophole. While the new constitution is much better than the old ones, it still leaves much to be desired. The most concerning parts of the new constitution are the ones that deal with military powers in Egypt. As in the old constitutions, the new setup allows the military to retain its economic rights in Egypt, which are unknown but undoubtedly numerous. The military in Egypt can buy and sell real estate autonomously, manufacture daily household products, control resorts and tourist industries, and participate in many more undisclosed economic ventures. Additionally, the new constitution allows the military to autonomously choose its defense minister for a period of eight years. The military has political and economic privileges that essentially authorize the military can continue to control Egypt.
Egypt’s recent past of political turmoil and upheaval will be for nothing if the people simply turn over and allow their country and its military-backed regime to suppresses free speech and basic liberties. There is urgency in the populace to find some sort of structure; they are ready for almost any solution. Their frustration and complacency many prove fertile soil for Sisi’s ambitions.
