By: Charlie Spalding
The race to replace the retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss is beginning to take shape, particularly on the Republican side. Two candidates have already declared their intention to run in the Republican primary, precipitating a domino effect across the state’s congressional districts. Nate Silver assesses the race to be “Likely Republican,” yet potential candidates also continue to be floated from the left. Undoubtedly, Georgia is poised for an exciting series of elections in 2014.
The following is an update on a previous article analyzing potential candidates written immediately after Chambliss’ announcement of his intention to retire, starting with candidates who have announced that they will not seek the seat.
Republicans
The Republican primary will get messy. Two members of the congressional delegation have already declared, and one more looks sure to follow. Geographically, the race could feature Republicans from all across the state, and may pit rural and urban voting blocks against one another. Further, the race could even include self-funders and political newcomers, making for a contest that will likely be closely watched around the country.
Who’s Out:
Sonny Perdue – While the former governor would have certainly enjoyed the advantage of widespread name recognition and a political network from his 2006 re-election campaign, a statement released by Perdue indicated he would not seek the Republican nomination.
Tom Graves, Lynn Westmoreland – Both Tea Party favorites were the subject of speculation as prominent conservative members of the state’s congressional delegation. However, Westmoreland quashed rumors of a potential run only days after Chambliss’ initial announcement. Graves followed suit only weeks later.
Martha Zoller – Zoller, a former candidate for the Republican nomination in Georgia’s 12th District, raised eyebrows two weeks ago with news of “an important announcement regarding [her] future in Georgia politics.” However, the announcement seems to have been a ploy to raise awareness for the launching of her new website, “Zpolitics.”
Who’s In:
Paul Broun (IN) – Rep. Paul Broun of the 10th District was already rumored to be considering a primary challenge to Georgia’s senior senator. Therefore, it was unsurprising when Broun announced his candidacy only two weeks after Chambliss’ announcement. Broun, who has a penchant for making headlines, has strived to run a campaign focused on the American economy and the burgeoning federal deficit. However, Broun managed to elicit laughter, consternation, and head scratching in Augusta this week, asserting he didn’t want to pay for sex change operations and “liked being a boy.”
Phil Gingrey (IN) – Rep. Phil Gingrey of the 11th District has also declared his intention to seek the 2014 Republican nomination. Perhaps
in an attempt to be more palatable to the Republican establishment, Gingrey recently backed away from controversial comments in defense of Todd Akin. Congressman Gingrey has a healthy $1.9 million on hand, and has significant fundraising potential by virtue of the relatively affluent areas in his North Atlanta district. Amidst the escalating debate on gun control and violence, Gingrey will undoubtedly face tough questions about his earlier suggestions regarding the viability of a ban on high-capacity magazines. Despite trying to back away from the issue, Gingrey’s stance on the 2nd Amendment will remain an issue for conservatives, in large part due to the current poignancy of the gun control debate.
Potential Republican Candidates:
Jack Kingston – The southeast Georgia congressman has already confirmed an unofficial run for the seat. Kingston has tapped former Gingrich adviser Patrick Millsaps, who helped manage the former Speaker’s presidential campaign. Additionally, Kingston has raised $841,000 in the first quarter of the year, an impressive sum considering his unofficial status in the race and his non-Atlanta power base. The nearly $1.8 million Kingston has on hand suggests that an announcement is imminent, particularly since he raised only $90,000 in the same period in 2012. If elected, the relatively young Kingston (age 57) would have the potential to be a multiple-term senator and rise to a key leadership position in the Senate, perhaps suggesting the 1st District congressman would be a favorite for foresighted or outside groups. Further, Kingston has already shown the capacity for the politicking necessary to rise in the ranks, having held key leadership positions during his two-decade stint in Congress.
David Perdue – First cousin of former Gov. Sonny Perdue, David Perdue will reportedly resign his position on the governing board of the Georgia Ports Authority in the coming weeks, perhaps in preparation for a Senate run. Perdue has an impressive career in the private sector, having served as CEO of Dollar General, Pillowtex, and Reebok. Nonetheless, it would be Perdue’s first foray into politics. However, as his private sector background suggests, Perdue may have the capacity for significant self-funding, particularly important in the early months of the campaign. Perdue would also enjoy name-recognition from his first cousin’s two terms as governor. His lack of political experience is also an advantage, as his record is inherently untarnished.
Tom Price – Initially thought to be a lock for the race, the 6th District congressman has since tempered speculation about his future political plans. Price, too, had been rumored to be considering a primary challenge to Saxby Chambliss, and Chambliss’ retirement and the resulting open primary seem to have made Price think twice about what many had thought was a sure thing. Price is an up and coming figure in the more conservative wing of House Republicans, and endeared himself to many by hinting at a challenge for John Boehner’s gavel. As the Vice-Chairman of the Budget Committee, Price enjoys a position with great power and opportunity for advancement. In his daily radio show on April 9, conservative host Erick Erickson hinted that Price would be sitting the 2014 race out and gear up for a 2016 run against incumbent Senator Johnny Isakson.
Karen Handel – Handel and Price are thought to be mutually exclusive candidates – if Price chooses to run, Handel will pursue the 6th District congressional seat. If he stays put, Handel will probably pursue a Senate run. Handel has already been on a statewide ballot in the 2006 gubernatorial race and was the frontrunner until revelations of her dubious association with Log Cabin Republicans, a group supporting civil rights for homosexuals. Nonetheless, Handel would undoubtedly have the advantage of a statewide campaign network, something candidates from Georgia’s congressional delegation would not enjoy. Handel and Sonny Perdue are said to be good friends, and her candidacy would obviously put the former governor in a predicament as to who to support between Handel and David Perdue. Handel may also get a close look from outside groups looking to defy the GOP’s “old white man” stereotype.
Democrats
In order to have a chance to upset the Republicans in 2014, Democrats will likely have to coalesce early around one candidate and hope for a true slugfest in the Republican primary. Barrow appears to be the most viable option, and would likely fare well against a Republican candidate pushed far to the right by a bruising primary. Nonetheless, Democrats will still be challenged to increase voter turnout, as the mid-term election will not draw the same number of young and minority voters to the polls.
Who’s Out:
Kasim Reed – The Atlanta mayor’s close ties to the White House and his recent endorsement of gay marriage suggest that he clearly has further plans for his political career. However, the 2014 Senate race is not included in them, as Reed announced just days after Chambliss’ retirement announcement.
Potential Democrat Candidates:
John Barrow – The 12th District congressman and perennial “thorn in the side” for Georgia Republicans, is probably the Democrats’ best hope for pulling a 2014 upset. Barrow’s identity as a “Blue-Dog Democrat” and his NRA credentials make him palatable to a wide swath of Georgians. Additionally, as a result of Republican efforts to oust him, Barrow actually enjoys a geographic advantage unlike any other candidate, having represented a number of counties across eastern Georgia. Further, Barrow is a seasoned campaigner having battled for every one of his five terms in office, something that cannot be said of Republican members of Georgia’s congressional delegation. Since Barrow probably represents the best chance for Democrats, his current lack of funds would not be a real impediment, as national Democratic groups would undoubtedly recognize the opportunity. Barrow held meetings with key supporters in Atlanta in late March to assess the viability of a Senate run, and Republicans are clearly taking him seriously.
Michelle Nunn – The daughter of longtime United States Senator Sam Nunn, Michelle Nunn is also reported to be considering a run for Senate. Nunn is actively involved in Points of Light and HandsOn Atlanta, two highly visible non-profits across the city and state. Her non-profit work could be an advantage for fundraising, and her father’s positive legacy across the state could be helpful should Nunn decide to enter the race. Her name has been floated before for a statewide election, and there is little doubt that Michelle Nunn is politically well connected.
Peter Aman – In an MSNBC interview, Kasim Reed suggested that Peter Aman, former Chief Operating Officer of the city of Atlanta, would be a “terrific” candidate. Aman has an intriguing combination of public and private sector experience as a partner of management consulting firm Bain and Company (separate from Romney’s Bain Capital) and his work in the Atlanta City Hall. However, it seems unlikely that a Democrat with little name recognition could be a viable candidate in an already uphill battle.
