By: Daniel McManus
On Oct. 7, 2016, the U.S. Intelligence Community released a statement revealing its knowledge of Russian involvement in the election process. The United States public reacted with shock and horror, but President Vladimir Putin has not been hiding his efforts. Now that the Russian government has progressed from warning shots to direct meddling in the presidential election, the public has been forced to recognize this modern Russian campaign of influence.
Russian actions have frequently pushed the envelope, but they very rarely have resulted in outright aggression. More frequently, the Russian Federation has taken the steps necessary to solidify its position as a superpower. For example, Russia took advantage of American hesitation in the Syrian Civil War and effectively challenged the United States’ hegemony in the region by directly providing military support and humanitarian aid. The Russian Parliament approved use of Russian military forces in the suppression of terrorist groups in the region, but tensions between the West and Russia have flared up due to Russia’s targeting of key western allies, such as the Kurdish militias, as terrorist groups.
The country further strained international relationships as it strove to extend its reach into other countries while acting as it deemed appropriate. In 2018, ex-KGB agent Sergei Skripal was found poisoned on a park bench in England. In the subsequent investigation it was determined that the toxin used was a uniquely manufactured Russian substance and the blame was laid at the feet of the Kremlin. In response to this overreach by the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom expelled 23 Russian diplomats.
These actions have avoided direct use of the military while still drawing the ire of the international community; some countries, namely the United States, may have been disturbed by these actions, but nothing truly came of any of them.
The opening move of the true offensive came in February 2014, when Russian special forces entered the Crimean Peninsula after the eruption of a political crisis that resulted in the removal of Ukrainian President Yanukovych. In the days following his removal, separatist gunmen and unmarked combat troops would seize government buildings. International news outlets would later find that those unmarked troops were in fact Russian special forces.
In an internationally condemned referendum, Crimean voters overwhelmingly voted to join the Russian Federation. Much like the German annexation of the Sudetenland, Russia justified the actions by claiming the protection of ethnic Russians in Crimea and a wave of public support. International observers have serious doubts of the validity of the referendum and the inflation of public opinion by those in power, the pro-separatists. Similar to German aggression in the 1930s, no one has seriously challenged Russia’s actions, which serves only to embolden the belief that truly damaging consequences will not be enacted.
The saga continued as Russian troops entered Ukraine without the permission of the Ukrainian government. There is no other way to describe a nation moving troops and combat equipment into another sovereign nation’s territory than an invasion. In response, the international community handed down sanctions and publicly condemned the actions of the Russian Federation. Such blatant disregard for the sovereignty of a neighboring country and the reaction of the international community demonstrates that President Putin and the Kremlin have no fear of a truly damaging international response by this point.
Arriving at the present day, we now know of Russian misinformation, propaganda campaigns, and meddling in the 2016 presidential election.
News outlets have a natural weakness in that they often fail to truly analyze patterns over time for the casual consumer. The outlets have a tendency to ignore slowly-developing stories with connections over many years for the news of now. This means that it is up to the consumer to recognize that stories do not develop in a matter of days, or even weeks; the truly important stories come together over a number of years and possibly with large gaps between events.
It has often been stated that the nature of warfare has transitioned from the deployment of armies to drones and tactical teams going up against terrorist cells, but we should not let this distract us from the oldest form of exerting control: influencing. The Russian Federation has been making itself a larger player on the grand global stage at the same time as it consolidates power in its local theatres. It is reaching into other nations to extract extra-legal justice and gives no apologies for it. In the case of Ukraine, President Putin has gone as far as to admit to Russian aggression.
Russia has stepped up to the plate and is waiting for the world to respond. If we continue to focus on the stories as they are given to us, one-by-one, then we will miss our opportunity to respond. It would be irresponsible to imply that the world will come to an end or that we are in imminent danger, but we’ve been lucky so far; they have just been warning shots. We may not be so lucky in the future. Before we know it, the United States may be replaced by the Russian Federation as the international power broker, and Americans are not used to playing second fiddle.