By: Ronnie Kurtz
Wow.
On the day of the Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri caucuses, I, long resigned to the fact that Mitt Romney will be the eventual nominee, ignored these contests as trivial exercises and steered my television away from CNN. That apathy quickly dissipated when the most overt of my conservative friends came in smiling like he had just won the lottery.
“SANTORUM SWEEP! SANTORUM SWEEP!”
What?
The February 4th edition of The Economist—yes, three days before these contests—made this outcome seem impossible. “The result [in Florida] sets the race for the nomination back to its default state for most of the past year,” the publication proclaims, “with Mr. Romney as the presumed nominee.” The magazine also assures us that these results show “Romney’s appeal is broader than his poor showing in South Carolina had implied.” Couple these glowing remarks with the fact that Santorum was mentioned once in the article (as in, “[Romney] took 46% of the vote [in Florida], more than…Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum put together”), and cries of SANTORUM SWEEP made my conservative friend appear even more insane than he normally does.
This is not good – not good for Romney, not good for the Republican Party, not good for anyone who wishes to see Obama lose the upcoming election. Sure, there is the popular argument that this long, drawn out and unreasonably contentious primary battle strengthens the eventual candidate for fight ahead. Those making this argument point to the beneficial effects of Obama’s drawn out primary campaign in 2008. Yet, in Obama’s case, the frontrunner was not established, resulting in two competitive candidates who bettered each other. Romney, however, has been the frontrunner the entire time; the fact that there still is a race this late simply implies that Romney cannot finish the job.
Furthermore, the party itself appears to lack the apparatus to support Romney on his way to the White House. Simply look at the returns for Romney and the Republican Party in these latest contests in comparison to 2008.
From The Daily Beast:
Missouri: Four years ago, Mitt Romney got about 172,000 votes out of 589,000 cast. Last night, Romney got around 64,000 out of roughly 233,000 cast.
Minnesota: Four years ago, Romney drew 26,000 votes out of 63,000 cast. Last night—just 8,000 out of around 47,000 cast.
Colorado: In 2008 Romney won 42,000 votes out of 70,000 cast. Last night he got 23,000 votes out of 65,000 cast
Really? First, for Romney—clearly something is wrong if this many people jump ship after four years in which all he has done is campaign. If he can’t keep supporters he already had, how is he to corral new ones? Perhaps the most disturbing result comes from Missouri. Sure, no delegates were awarded, but this was the first time Romney faced off against one Conservative alternative, with Gingrich off of the ballot. With the Conservative vote united against him, he lost by 30%. His biggest competition drops off of the stage and voters run even further away; that has to make his heart sink.
Even more disheartening is how this poor showing has hurt Romney in the polls. See the below chart from Real Clear Politics.
Clearly, Romney is not the immovable force people thought he was if he can be overcome in the polls for any period of time this late in the game. Yet, despite his rise, Santorum is perhaps a worse candidate than Romney on the vague Republican “electability” scale, with his recent surge in the GOP polls merely lowering Obama’s lead over him to 8%.
From Real Clear Politics
Compare this to the fact that Romney trails Obama by 5.9% , and clearly the party is in trouble.
From Real Clear Politics
The circus that this election cycle has become can be connected to the absolutely degenerate state of the Republican party. In 2008, the Republican Party was as certain as ever to lose the general election, with perhaps 1932 and 1976 as the only contemporary comparisons. And yet, after four years of screaming, complaining and rallying support against Obama, voter turnout goes down? The Republican electorate has made it clear that they have plenty of enthusiasm against Obama, so this pitiful showing can only be construed as a lack of enthusiasm for the Republican candidates themselves.
If all of this isn’t enough to prove the doom of the Republican Party and the Romney candidacy, consider yet another bit of insight into the average voter’s mentality gleaned from The Economist. When asked their reason for supporting Romney, what was the one cited most often? Mr. Romney has a better chance than the other candidates of beating Barack Obama. So, here we are, left with two Republican candidates; Romney is supported because he can beat Obama, Santorum is supported because he can beat Romney. Obama can, and will, incite pure enthusiasm and excitement on the campaign trail (if you need a reminder, watch this). As this cycle has shown, none of the Republican candidates have the ability to compete on that level. Good news is, if they don’t figure it out soon, they’ll have four more years to work on it.
