Edition 1: February 26-March 4
By Zachary Leggio and Mayerlyn Rivera
Upcoming
Iran
Iran’s elections for the parliament, or Islamic Consultative Assembly, and The Assembly of Experts will take place March 1. The Assembly of Experts and the parliament each select six members of the Guardian Council, which has the incredibly influential power to supervise elections and vet candidates for them.
Because of this power vested in the Guardian Council, elections are considered encumbered and unfair as the Council has become increasingly strict in vetting out reformist candidates. The major factions in Iranian politics are the principlists, or conservatives, which currently hold 227 of the 290 seats in the parliament, and the reformists, which currently hold 20 seats. Both of these factions are composed of a variety of political parties, many of which only appear during election cycles, and many of which have very unclear political platforms. The parliament also has five seats reserved for ethnic and religious minorities in Iran: one seat each for northern Armenians, southern Armenians, Assyrians, Jews, and Zoroastrians.
These elections are the first held in the country since the major protests that swept the country in September 2022, following the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd, in police custody. These protests were harshly crushed by the Iranian government and led to an intense decrease in trust in Iranian elections and an increase in voter apathy. Recent polls suggest that over 50% of Iranians feel indifferent to the elections, despite the government’s communication efforts to encourage voter turnout. Predictions estimate that turnout will fall below that of the 2020 election, 42.57%, which was already the lowest rate since the Islamic Revolution. The Guardian Council has only approved 20-30 reformist candidates to run in this week’s elections, according to reformist politicians. Thus, it is likely that these elections will have very little impact on Iran’s government and that the Islamic conservatives will retain power.
Recaps
El Salvador
In the most recent presidential election on February 4, President Nayib Bukele claimed a victorious election before an official voter count was declared. Bukele took to X (formally known as Twitter) to say “According to our numbers, we have won the presidential election with more than 85 percent of the votes and a minimum of 58 of 60 deputies in the [Legislative] Assembly”. This upcoming Monday, March 3 will be election day for the 44 new municipalities across the nation (La Frensa Publica).
New Ideas won in the executive vote, and new voter reforms are expected to be implemented next week. There has been a reduction of deputies in the Legislative Assembly from 84 to 60, with New Ideas currently holding 56 seats and opposing parties holding 20. In a study done by the University of Central America (UCA), the municipal elections are expected to follow the assembly voter turnout, in favor of New Ideas at 42.9% compared to a 6.7% chance from coalition partner GANA. Come March 3, they will count local and diaspora votes, and with large support for Bukele and New Ideas, Salvadorans and observers expect to foresee another victory for New Ideas and President Nayib Bukele.
Pakistan
After no party received a majority in parliament during Pakistan’s February 8 elections, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the People’s Party (PPP) has formed a coalition government with PML-N leader Shehbaz Sharif to become Pakistan’s prime minister, while Asif Ali Zardari, of the PPP, will become president. While allies of the party of ousted former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the Pakistan Tehereek-e-Insaf (PTI), won the most seats in parliament, they did not have enough support to successfully form a coalition.
The PTI has claimed widespread manipulation of votes, facing much opposition leading up to the election. This includes disqualified candidates and the denial of using its election symbol, the cricket bat, on ballots, resulting in candidates running as independents rather than PTI members.
The PMLN-PPP coalition faces a divided Pakistan, with fears of PTI protests and holdups in parliament, as well as the constant issue of division in Pakistan’s many ethnic regions and the country’s ongoing challenge to India and China’s claims on the Jammu and Kashmir regions. The coalition also faces deep-rooted economic crises and must work to negotiate for IMF programs to keep the heavily-indebted state afloat.
Indonesia
The world’s third-largest democracy elected right-wing candidate Prabowo Subianto as president on February 14, replacing term-limited Joko Widodo, one of the world’s most popular leaders. Subianto is a 72-year old former general, who has faced criticism for committing atrocities during Indonesia’s occupation of Timor-Leste in the 1970’s and 1980’s. Subianto’s campaign, however, painted him as a sweet grandpa, pandering to young voters who were not yet born during Subianto’s alleged war crimes.
He has promised to continue Joko Widodo (nicknamed “Jokowi”) economic style, which involves many infrastructure-based development plans, including close cooperation with China and its Belt & Road Initiative. Subianto has expressed a middle-road stance on the issue of Chinese and American interests in Asia, such as supporting China’s economic policy and supporting the United States’ policy of challenging Chinese hegemony. Experts predict that Subianto will have a much stricter stance on the South China Sea controversy than Jokowi. Subianto beat out moderate Anies Baswedan and center-left Ganjar Pranowo in a race that was once close in the polls, but ended in a Subianto victory that was much more decisive than expected.
Photo: https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2024/mar/05/photos-2024-elections