By: Jeffrey Lanier
Question: On what issue (domestic or foreign) do you think a polarized Congress can actually agree? What policy progress do you think could be made on this issue?
In a day and age of filibusters, partisan votes, and increasingly different ideologies, the idea that a gridlocked Congress could ever accomplish anything of note is difficult to imagine. Congress has grown steadily from the benevolent caretakers of the nation to the gamesmen of today, willing to play political chicken to notch a victory over the opposing party. Issues such as the sequester, the debt ceiling, and the budget have become annual bickering events in which much is said and little is done. However, despite the conflicting views and deep resentment that seems to plague Congress, issues do exist upon which progress can be made for the benefit of both parties and, most importantly, the nation. The most notable example of these issues lies in immigration reform; both parties need to pass immigration reform, and neither can accomplish this without bipartisan support. Such a bill could potentially be the greatest accomplishment of President Obama’s second term, and, due to the present political and social environment of the United States, he has been given the opportunity.
The current political environment for immigration reform is undoubtedly ideal for significant progress to be made. President Obama and the Democratic Party have faced significant criticism from the Hispanic population for failing to fulfill a first-term promise of resolving the current immigration crisis. After spending the majority of his first term focusing on bills such as the Affordable Care Act, President Obama was able to convince Hispanic voters to trust him to accomplish immigration reform in his second term. Coupled with a record-high number of deportations per year, both he and the Democratic Party need desperately to save face with an immigration bill, or they could potentially face alienating a significant portion of supporters, as Hispanic voters are unlikely to ignore a second failed promise.
On the other side, the Republican Party has been faring miserably with Hispanic voters. After receiving only 27% of the Hispanic vote in the most recent election and only 31% in the previous election, the party has come to realize they have no choice but to alter their stance on certain issues. In fact, after the most recent election, the Republican National Committee wrote a paper named “Growth and Opportunity Project,” in which it stated that, in order for the Republican Party to remain relevant, it must “champion comprehensive immigration reform.” The party’s history of stringent and seemingly unsympathetic policies toward immigration, as well as the more extreme policies of some Republican states, desperately needs to be reformed for the sake of its future political survival.
In addition to the current political environment, an immigration reform bill has the benefit of widespread public support and a rising proportion of Hispanic voters. According to multiple public opinion polls conducted by Rasmussen, an overwhelming majority of Americans are in favor of immigration reform, with numbers continuing to rise. An exit poll conducted on the day of the 2012 election found that nearly two-thirds of voters desired a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Another poll conducted in April 2013 found 63% of Americans in favor of providing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants and 67% in favor of increasing border control. Politicians waiting to strike when public opinion swings in their favor would be wise to act, potentially explaining the sudden reemergence of Washington’s interest in immigration.
Part of these rising numbers is due to the steadily increasing number of Hispanic voters; in 2012, 24 million Hispanics were eligible to vote, with that number expected to nearly double in the next twenty years. In fact, the Hispanic population comprised more than half of American population growth over the past decade and is easily the fastest growing segment of the nation. While the entire Hispanic population may not agree on immigration policies, a recent poll found that 70% of Hispanic voters desire immigration reform to be a top priority of Congress – likely due to record numbers of current immigrants, nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants, and soaring deportation numbers. Support from both the Hispanic population and American voters in general provide the current Congress with an ideal social environment for passing an immigration reform bill.
With the perfect political and social climate for progress to be made, immigration reform has a legitimate chance to be passed in today’s polarized political atmosphere. However, reform can only be made if the Republican and Democratic priorities can be married in a bill of compromise; essentially, tighter border security and a reasonable path to citizenship are non-negotiable. In addition, the path to citizenship cannot under any circumstances appear to be an amnesty bill; a wide majority of Americans have strongly opposed such a concept ever since the failed amnesty attempt by Reagan in 1986. This multi-step path will have to be arduous enough that conservatives will appreciate any immigrant’s dedication to the process, while simultaneously benevolent enough that liberals will feel as though immigrants are not being unfairly punished.
Also, the tightened border security, while unnecessary for a Democratic vote, is absolutely essential to pass Republican scrutiny. Any type of path to citizenship will be viewed as an exaggerated form of amnesty unless border security can create seal tight borders. If illegal immigration can be prevented, then conservatives must logically deal next with the undocumented immigrants remaining in the country, and, certainly, imitating Obama’s mass deportation policy is unattractive to Republicans. A combination of both facets will both revolutionize the immigration controversy, as well as have a fighting chance in passing a divided Congress.
While there is certainly no guarantee that any bill can pass in our current gridlocked Congress, the bill that has the most potential – both in its ability to effect change and its ability to pass – is certainly immigration reform. Republicans, Democrats, and the American people all desire for this bill to pass, and, with the present political and social environment, along with a bill that combines a path to citizenship with stronger border security, it very well may.
