By: Ryan Prior
“Keys to the White House” is a model for predicting presidential elections. Developed in 1981 by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, the model retrospectively explains every presidential election from 1860-1980, and predicted every election result between 1984 and 2008. The model assumes a more nuanced and pragmatic electorate for which the economy is not the primary decision point (as in other presidential election models). These same 13 Keys that explain why Lincoln beat Douglas in 1860 are the same general principles that also explain why Obama beat McCain in 2008.
Georgia Political Review will keep this model up on the website throughout the course of the 2012 campaign. It will serve as our de facto election scorecard. Below I’ve given my own answers to the key, which are a little bit more cautious than the enthusiastic pro-Obama standpoint Lichtman himself gave of Keys in May here .
Nonetheless, my analysis still predicts an Obama victory. My main departure from Lichtman’s analysis of the 2012 Keys rests on two points: 1.) the formation of a credible Third Party effort under the banner of Americans Elect (see more about their impressive efforts here ). Even so, we don’t know that a Third Party effort is a threat to Obama. Ross Perot’s Third Party challenge in 1992 was not a major threat to Clinton. 2.) I assume that the Tea Party movement and minor militia formation constitute social unrest (perhaps I’m too young, and wasn’t alive in the 1960s, as Lichtman was, to experience true social unrest.
Although it’s too early to tell now, a possible double dip recession could also hand the Republicans an extra Key. From even a conservative reading of the Keys, though, it’s difficult to argue a recession could sway the election in their favor.
The Keys are statements that favor the re election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. False, Republicans won the House in a historic landslide, picking up 65 seats.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. True
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. True
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. False—Americans Elect is seeking independent candidates to put on the ballot in all 50 states. They’ve already gotten 1.6 million signatures in California.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. True, for now. However, the risk of a double-dip recession remains palpable.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. False
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. True: Affordable Care Act, Dodd-Frank, Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell Repeal, New START Treaty, the stimulus, etc. Obama’s legislative record is the most impressive of any President since LBJ in the 1960s.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. False: Tea Party, militia formation. Driven by economic insecurity and fears of government overreach.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. True
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. True
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. True: Killing bin Laden, or New START Treaty
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. True: President Obama is charismatic, having drawn comparisons to FDR, JFK, and Reagan. His status as the first black president may not make him a “national hero,” but it does make him something of a living legend.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. True: There is currently no major charismatic rallying figure in the Republican primary field. For me, Mike Huckabee was the only Republican capable of challenging Obama in the charisma department, though Michelle Bachmann might be considered “charismatic” if she can manage to win the nomination, but that is a very tall order.
Though many have held major political positions, none of the current Republican candidates qualify as “national heroes.”
True: 8 or 9
False: 4 or 5
As of now, the challenging party does not have enough “False” ratings to overcome the incumbent party’s “True” ratings.
Keys to Republican Success:
1. Double dip recession.
2. Charismatic national hero—finding a quality on the level of TR, FDR, JFK, or Reagan is a must.
3. An Obama foreign policy failure.
4. An Obama scandal.
We’ll keep the Keys updated, should anything change between now and November 2012.
