By: Alexander Sileo
Ryan authored a great article last week regarding Ron Paul’s strategy emphasizing delegates at the GOP convention in a way that no other candidate in the Republican field is utilizing. Although I would not go as far as to call his supporters minions, it is easy to see that Ron Paul has an enthusiastic and loyal base that sustains his election campaign. His attempt to bring supporting delegates to the Republican National Convention may or may not work, but it left me wondering whether Ron Paul has been successful in his campaign so far. Is he having an effect on the rest of the Republican voters?
Paul has always had energetic supporters. He represents a significant departure from common Republican viewpoints or a return to those values as his supporters might say. Paul also shows a consistency that is hard to find in any other politician. His base is full of people who agree with his isolationist stance on foreign policy foreign policy, his dislike for the Federal Reserve, and his championing of a states’ rights approach to domestic policy. But has he managed to convince anyone else?
This primary season for the Republican Party has mostly been about finding a possible alternative to Mitt Romney. Many voters are not inspired by Romney, and everyone was hoping for a new candidate to step up and prove themselves on the national stage, which didn’t happen. Tim Pawlenty dropped out after a disappointing third in the Ames Straw Poll. Herman Cain stopped running after a brief moment of leading the pack due to sexual misconduct accusations. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry dropped out in January after failing to gain consistent support from conservative voters. Jon Huntsman also suspended his campaign after a poor showing in New Hampshire which produced a lack of momentum. Each of these candidates, along with remaining candidates Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, have had their moment of spotlight on the national stage and failed to utilize it in a way that significantly displaced the Romney campaign.
Ron Paul, in contrast, has always been relegated to the side of the stage during debates and to the second page of newspapers. In a party seemingly desperate to elect anyone but Mitt Romney,
Ron Paul has mostly failed to gain attention, except when controversial newsletters supposedly written by Paul appeared. He has never had a chance to truly shine at a debate either. He generally only gets to answer a few questions each debate while moderators routinely ignore him. This is not to say that the media is purposefully biased against Paul, but rather that he has yet to do anything to demand their attention. Paul has not managed to make them notice. His debate answers are usually long and complex to a point where most people stop paying attention. His strength is in his ability to explain his positions, but in a debate setting he needs quick thirty second clips rather than a meandering monologue about why everyone else on stage is wrong about Iran.
Because the media is ignoring him, most of the Republican voters are too. Paul has a decent amount of support in each state, but he has yet to win any state. He managed to place second in New Hampshire, but he was mostly forgotten as the press turned straight to South Carolina and Florida where he placed fourth in each. Even after the other candidates began dropping out, Ron Paul never seemed to get his turn as a viable alternative to Mitt Romney. As Super Tuesday results come in and Romney begins to take more states, the window is closing for another candidate to pose a serious challenge to his campaign.
If Paul fails to gain traction among voters, his last chance to have an impact may be shaping the debate. If enough Republicans respond well enough to his ideas and positions, he may be able to influence the party and the positions of the eventual nominee. This would be the most constructive way, at least for the Republican nominee, to get his ideas out there. Ron Paul could also attempt a third party run that may weaken the Republican Party if his supporters jump ship with him, but he would have no chance of winning the general election in November.
Ron Paul’s performance so far has not produced any meaningful results. Although polls at one point showed him favorably when compared to President Barack Obama, the party still largely ignored him and focused on the other three remaining candidates. Ron Paul has yet to really accomplish anything. He still has a chance, as Ryan pointed out, to gain some delegates for the convention, but this will most likely not be enough. His ideas and policy proposals have also not caught on due to his poor debate performances and lack of media attention. If Paul wants to make an impact, he is going to have to do so soon or face a party that has already made up its mind and moved on.
