By: Jessica Pasquarello
After losing major strongholds in both Iraq and Syria within a three-month period in 2017, many news outlets began to ask if ISIL had officially been defeated and if the threat of radical Islamic terrorism had finally waned. Prominent political figures, including, most notably, U.S. President Donald Trump, further advanced such ideas, with Trump saying in his first State of the Union address in January 2018 that “the coalition to defeat ISI(L) has liberated almost 100 percent of the territory once held by these killers.” However, although the amount of territory over which ISIL currently controls has indeed been sizably reduced, to say that the extremist organization has been completely wiped out would be a gross simplification.
What is ISIL and what does it want?
The most basic goal of ISIL could be described as creating a state, or caliphate, in which the strictest interpretation of Sharia (Islamic law) serves as a legal system and guiding principle for all interactions. However, the organization’s conceptions of such a “state” have expanded over time. The name “ISIL” refers to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, but in 2014 the group officially re-named itself as simply the Islamic State, or IS, to show that its more global aspirations were not bound to a single part of the world.
How was ISIL formed?
One can trace the beginnings of radical Islamic terrorism back at least to 1979. At the height of the Cold War, the communist People’s Democratic Party, or PDP, had risen to power in Afghanistan, which caused a civil war in which Afghani Muslim guerillas (who feared that the anti-religious nature of communism could threaten their religious freedom) led uprisings against the government. Eventually, approximately 35,0000 Muslim men from forty countries ventured to Afghanistan to join the fight and defend the right of their Muslim brothers and sisters to practice their faith.
Of course, since the conflict involved communism, the two major Cold War actors also became intertwined: the Soviet Union and the United States. While the Soviet Union invaded the region and maintained large numbers of forces on the ground, the U.S. decided to instead provide money, arms, and training to the Muslim soldiers, or mujahideen (which translates from Arabic to “those engaged in jihad”) in Afghanistan.
One famous member of the mujahideen was Osama bin Laden, a member of the second-richest family in Saudi Arabia. Bin Laden served an important role in the war, using his connections in the region to secure large sums of financial support for the mujahideen. However, bin Laden’s true rise to fame (or infamy) came after the Soviet-Afghan war ended, when he, along with his spiritual teacher and friend, Abdullah Azzam, decided to establish a group called al-Qaeda, or “the base” to provide further training to future Muslim fighters.
At this point, bin Laden could already be described as fairly radical. Growing up in Saudi Arabia, he met many individuals performing Hajj, and some of these people introduced him to Wahhabism, or Salafism, the most fundamental branch of Islam that endorses a very strict interpretation of the Qur’an. (These Islamic sects are also the most dominant across Saudi Arabia, which explains why the country retains some of the strictest laws in the Muslim world.) Bin Laden also already held some fairly strong anti-American tendencies, which began at the young age of 10, when his father was killed in a private plane crash piloted by an American.
However, the point at which al-Qaeda officially renounced the United States occurred several years later, in 1996, at which point bin Laden wrote a thirty-page fatwa, or legal opinion, called “Declaration of War Against the Americans Occupying the Land of the Two Holy Places.” The Gulf War served as the impetus for this radical stance, because after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, Saudi Arabia wanted to increase the size of its military. Bin Laden offered the services of his mujahideen forces, but Saudi Arabia instead accepted help from its ally, the United States, who quickly sent over 100,000 soldiers. The problem with this was that the Qur’an officially outlaws any non-Muslims from entering Islam’s two holiest cities, Mecca and Medina, both of which are located in Saudi Arabia. Thus, Americans’ presence in the country served as the tipping point after which the al-Qaeda agenda, directed by bin Laden, became decidedly anti-American. Just a few years later, in 2001, al-Qaeda was able to perpetrate its most famous attack: 9/11.
In 2003, radical Islamic terrorism reached new levels in Iraq. After the US invasion of the country and the overthrow of its leader, Saddam Hussein, Americans in the region established a new law of “de-Baathification” – that is to say, any Iraqis who had been members of Hussein’s army or his B’aath party were barred from government jobs and from receiving their pensions. This law had a huge impact on the lives of the majority of Iraqis, as over 400,000 individuals had served in the army and many more had worked under Hussein due to the lack of other employment options at the time of his dictatorship. Consequently, many of these newly-unemployed Iraqis grew enraged with the American government and joined forces with the already-established Iraqi branch of al-Qaeda, later to break off and form a new group that would later become known as ISIL.
How much damage has ISIL inflicted?
Initially, the group that formed after de-Baathification was called ISI: the Islamic State of Iraq. However, after seeing that Syria had become a weakened state due to the civil war that began there during the 2013 Arab Spring, ISI decided it wanted its Islamic caliphate to spread to that nation as well and thus took the name ISIS, or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. Once in Syria, the group quickly tried to absorb al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, which ultimately led al-Qaeda to renounce ISIL in 2014, since it wanted to maintain al-Nusra as its own affiliate. After breaking ties with al-Qaeda, ISIL officially launched its own global reign of terror.
The level of destruction that ISIL has wreaked on both towns and individual lives is enormous. From posting videos of public beheadings on the Internet to kidnapping an estimated 6,800 Yadizi women (members of a religious minority that ISIL considers to be “devil-worshippers”) and forcing them to be sex slaves in 2014, ISIL has committed an extraordinary number of crimes against humanity.
Sadly, the messages and propaganda of ISIL have encouraged many individuals, or “lone wolves” to also commit acts of terrorism in the name of the group. From June 2014 to February 2018, for example, there were 143 attacks in 29 countries that were either directly conducted or inspired by ISIL. As a result, 2,043 people were killed and thousands more injured.
Some of the most famous such attacks carried out by supporters of ISIL include the usage of explosives at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester, England in 2017, the murder of 130 people in a series of violent episodes in Paris in 2015, and the 2017 shooting at a Coptic Christian Church in Egypt, among many other horrendous events.
But the utter devastation that ISIL has caused just within the Middle East is often overlooked. In trying to gain territory, the group has absolutely destroyed entire towns and uprooted the lives of countless individuals. For example, even after a year of rebuilding efforts in Mosul, Iraq, following its liberation from ISIL rule, , rendering over 380,000 people displaced. Numerous schools and government buildings were also demolished as ISIL battled for territory in the city, and just repairing basic infrastructure in Mosul will cost upwards of $874 million. Unfortunately, this case is not a rare one, and countless other cities and villages have been similarly devastated by ISIL.
Who has ISIL targeted?
ISIL has been known to target Christians and all other non-Muslim groups, such as the Yadizis. The United Nations has even accused ISIL of attempting to commit genocide against the Yadizis. However, Muslims are also not immune to the group’s wrath. It is well-documented that ISIL is attempting to destroy all Muslim communities that are not Sunni, with Shia Muslims in Iraq facing particular persecution and violent attacks. Yet, even Sunni Muslims (especially Kurds) have not been spared by ISIL, and ultimately anyone who resists adherence to ISIL’s extreme views is at risk. It should also be noted that ISIL has actively targeted homosexual individuals as well.
What is the status of ISIL right now?
As referenced at the beginning of this article, the idea that ISIL had been defeated began to circulate at the end of 2017, and this argument does indeed have some merit. The possibility of establishing an Islamic state (or caliphate) in Syria and Iraq is now essentially zero. At its peak, ISIL controlled 100,000 square kilometers of land – the size of the United Kingdom – but has since lost 98% of that territory and currently only retains dominance in several small villages near Syria’s Euphrates River. In addition, there are only about 1,000 to 1,500 ISIL soldiers still actively fighting on the ground, since between 60,000 and 70,000 ISIL fighters were estimated to have been killed by July 2017.
The headway that has been made against ISIL can be credited to a variety of groups, with Iraqi and Kurdish forces serving as some of the most important on the ground. The United States has also been actively involved in the fight by leading an international coalition of 74 member states committed to a wide range of tasks that include cutting off ISIL’s access to funds, providing humanitarian aid to those displaced by ISIL, using intelligence agencies to halt the flow of foreign fighters into Syria and Iraq, and, of course, providing a degree of financial and military support. In total, 10,000 troops have been stationed in the region from 23 of the coalition members, including 2,000 American soldiers who are still deployed in northeast Syria. It should be noted, though, that most US involvement primarily comes in the form of air strikes; the US dropped 5,075 bombs on Iraq and Syria in August 2017 alone. This echoes President Trump’s campaign promise to “bomb the s**t out of” ISIL.
Currently, most US-led efforts are based in Syria, since Iraq has in effect been liberated. President Trump said earlier this year that his troops are “knocking the hell out of ISIS” and that the US will be “coming out of Syria, like, very soon.” Indeed, it appears that the overall conflict in Syria is drawing to a close as well, with ISIL retaining control over only a very small portion of land and with Turkey and Russia (representing the rebels and government, respectively) agreeing recently to create a demilitarized zone in Idlib, one of the last remaining areas under rebel/jihadi control. Thus, once the Syrian civil war ends (which will ), the authoritarian leader, President Bashar al-Assad, will remain in power, and both the rebels and ISIL will have made no significant inroads in implementing changes or gaining power.
Aside from geographical problems caused by their dramatic loss of territory, ISIL also faces questions regarding its future leadership. Five of its most senior officials were captured by Americans in May of this year, and Hudayfah al-Badri, the son of ISIL’s main leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, died just one month later, leaving Baghdadi without an apparent heir. One of the most telling signs of ISIL’s decay occurred this past August, when the group released an audio recording of Baghdadi essentially admitting that ISIL was losing its fight and encouraging lone wolves across the globe to continue performing acts of violence in ISIL’s name.
This idea of “lone wolf” terrorists is especially alarming. Despite the huge declines in ISIL’s power, experts warn that the amount of ISIL sympathizers remains high, and that “lone wolf” attacks could still occur going forward. Thus, Peter Vincent, a former head of the Department of Homeland Security, said in December of last year that, “The war has yet to be won, and if it’s ever going to be won it’s going to take many more years, and many more civilians will lose their lives.” Pentagon spokesperson Sean Robertson reiterated this statement, saying, “What really matters is the capability and intent of ISIL members worldwide, and that’s why the fight is not done.”
In addition, even in Syria and Iraq, the physical threat of ISIL has not yet been completely eradicated. While only around 1,500 members of ISIL may be actively fighting at the moment, US officials have said that the actual size of ISIL’s military is probably somewhere around 30,000. In spite of President Trump’s desire to exit the region soon, US troops may have to remain in the region for substantially longer in order to truly mitigate ISIL’s strength.
Robertson says that Pentagon believes ISIL, “is well positioned to rebuild and work on enabling its physical caliphate to re-emerge” and that despite losses in territory, ISIL is still stronger right now than al-Qaeda was at its peak. In addition to supporting fairly strong affiliate organizations in Afghanistan, North and West Africa, the Gulf States, and the Philippines, ISIL also has maintained a “virtual caliphate,” becoming deft at utilizing modern technology to further its goals. For example, it relies on Bitcoin and encrypted communication (particularly through Telegram) to secretly send money and messages between members. In addition, the group consistently keeps in contact with its followers throughout the world by posting large amounts of propaganda online and issuing its magazine, Dabiq, which is available in a number of languages, including English. Many foreigners have been recruited and trained as new members .
As long as they maintain a fairly solidified organizational and communication structure, a reasonable amount of soldiers, and a seemingly efficient means of recruitment, it appears that ISIL will not completely die. Anti-terrorism efforts against the group have definitely been successful, particularly in terms of reducing ISIL’s territory and temporarily halting plans for an Islamic State. But if the threat of radical Islamic terrorism is truly to be eradicated, there still remains much work to be done.