By Joshua Gregory
When Georgia’s 16 Electoral College votes were called for Joe Biden in the 2020 United States Presidential Election, Biden became the first Democrat to win Georgia’s Presidential votes since Bill Clinton in 1992, and the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Georgia since 2006. With a margin of victory of roughly 12,000 votes out of almost 5 million counted, Biden’s win in Georgia was his closest in the nation, and perhaps his unlikeliest. Biden’s victory was then surprisingly followed by dual wins for Democratic Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Reverend Raphael Warnock in January runoff races for Georgia’s Senate seats, giving Georgians their first pair of Democratic Senators since the first two years of George W. Bush’s Presidency. What was once debated is now clear: the Georgia Republican Party’s dominance of almost two decades is no longer sustainable, and the state party needs to make serious changes in order to remain competitive with an electorate that is increasingly diversifying.
On a national level, the United States has been trending towards the left for several decades. Democratic Presidential candidates have won the popular vote in seven out of the eight most recent elections. Social conservative values rooted in Christian fundamentalism and nationalism are being pushed aside in favor of historically liberal positions like the legalization of same-sex marriage and an increased acceptance of legalized abortion, and free market policies have been replaced with protectionist tariffs, increased government spending, and the raising of the minimum wage. This change has especially been felt in Georgia. The suburban Atlanta area, once the home of conservative stalwart Newt Gingrich, has rapidly shifted political demographics with the influx of educated and racially diverse voters from heavily Democratic cities, including New York and Chicago, and the mass exodus of suburban voters from the Republican Party under President Trump. Two Congressional seats in the Atlanta suburbs have flipped to blue since 2017. Former State House Minority Leader Stacy Abrams came within 55,000 votes of defeating now-Governor Brian Kemp in the 2018 Gubernatorial Election. She went on to found Fair Fight Action, an organization who works to fight voter suppression and register new voters, which in turn helped Democrats win across the board in the 2020 General Election.
The immediate future for the Georgia Republican Party does not look any brighter. Governor Kemp is up for reelection in 2022, and his electoral chances have been seriously damaged by party infighting. President Trump and his allies have placed the blame squarely on Kemp’s shoulders for the Georgia Electoral College loss, and their blame turned to hatred with Kemp’s refusal to unlawfully override the vote totals. Claiming widespread election fraud, Trump openly called for primary challengers to the disloyal Kemp and his chief election official, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Should Kemp survive a primary election against a formidable, Trump-backed opponent such as former Congressman Doug Collins or former State Representative Vernon Jones, he will emerge bloody to face the strongest Democrat challenger seen in Georgia since Stacey Abrams in 2018: Stacey Abrams. Her hope for a rematch is the worst kept secret among Georgia politicos, and she will be armed with tens of thousands of new voters in her favor.
In order to stop the “blue wave” that has come crashing over Georgia, Georgia Republicans need to focus less on appeasing President Trump’s loyal base and instead focus on reclaiming the party deserters who were turned off by Trump’s character and the political divisiveness left in his wake. The Republican Party has the potential to be the big-tent party of yesteryear, when it was home to coastal libertarians, New England moderates, and rural conservatives. This political brand of ideological acceptance has been proven successful with Republicans winning five out of six Presidential elections from 1968 to 1988, with the only loss narrowly coming from, ironically, Georgia Democrat Jimmy Carter. The Georgia Republican Party has the unique opportunity to promote this strategy at a statewide level. The party needs to cater to the varying policy priorities of Georgians across the state through promoting candidates who share values with their electorate as opposed to sharing Trump’s values. The far-right conservative messages that resonate in Georgia’s rural areas will fall flat in the sprawl of suburbia. The pro-Second Amendment electoral platform of 9th District’s Congressman Andrew Clyde will not work for a competitor to the 6th District’s Congresswoman Lucy McBath, a woman elected based on her stance as a gun control advocate. Far-right, Trump-like candidates, such as Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, cannot win in Marietta, Roswell, and Johns Creek. To abate the rising Democratic movement in Georgia, Georgia Republicans need to recruit moderate candidates who can appeal to wealthy suburbanites, Trump’s base, and political independents alike.
The Georgia Republican Party needs to heed the example of nationwide Republican candidates who won seats in 2020. Every candidate who defeated an incumbent Congressional Democrat was a woman, a racial minority, or both. In a party that has historically been represented by older, white men, this shift exemplifies how the national party is ahead of the state party. Georgia Republicans lost Senate races to an African-American man and a young, Jewish man, and they lost the 7th Congressional District to a woman, Carolyn Bourdeaux, one of only four open House races in the country to change parties.
With the 2020 General Election behind them, the 2022 midterms offer a chance for Georgia Republicans to put the Trump era in the rearview mirror. By uniting around incumbent Republican elected officials, the party can attempt to keep both Trump Republicans and moderate voters within the fold. An uncontested primary will position Kemp, Raffensperger, and other incumbents as the faces of an undivided party in order to face Stacey Abram’s challenge. Simultaneously, the party needs to nominate moderate, diverse candidates to face Senator Warnock and win back the suburban Atlanta swing districts currently represented by Democrats Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux. By nominating a moderate conservative with broad appeal to challenge Senator Warnock, the party has a strong opportunity to reclaim a lost Senate seat which will not be up for reelection again until 2028. Should the Georgia Republican party fail to adapt to the changing demographics of the Peach State, 2022 will spell the end of the party’s political chances for the next decade.
