Innovationsin technology have fundamentally shaped society today. The rate of advancement has been exponential: it began with the floppy disk in 1971, moved to the cell phone in 1981, the Macintosh computer in 1984, the webpage in 1991, and the iPhone in 2007. Given how quickly we have progressed, it is tempting to believe adoption of technological innovation is nearing critical mass, known empirically as the ‘laggard’ stage of the Diffusion of Innovation Theory. In reality, we live today in the dawn of the “age of technology,” the “wild west” of the Internet. What is coming next – “the internet of things” – will be larger and will create a far greater level of interconnection than we know today. One of its most notable players will be smart, driver-less automobiles, a technology for which all the components already exist. These cars are not a far-off fantasy of science fiction. If predictions by top automotive and consulting firms are any indication, they will be on the consumer market within the next ten years and will fundamentally change the way we live, work, and interact.
The challenge in bringing self-driving cars to market lies not in imagining the technology but in bringing together the component parts. A wide array of companies from the tech and automotive industries are competing to capitalize on this opportunity by doing just that. Three in particular stand out.
Audi, the second company to be granted a license to test their driverless cars in the state of California, recently completed a 550-mile road-trip of their prototype from Las Vegas to Bakersfield, California. Mercedes-Benz, which has also unveiled a prototype, hopes to bring a fully autonomous version of its S-class Sedan to market by 2020.
These autos will utilize different types of sensory technology, many of which are accompanied by microprocessors. Industry leaders Mobileye and NXP Semiconductors stand to make a large profit from this booming sector. Auto-manufacturers are not the only groups working with these specialized companies. Tech giant Google may not be a household name in the car industry, but it was the first company granted a license to test autonomous vehicles in Nevada. It recently built 100 prototypes of its two-seater self-driving cars. The company plans to unveil a software platform capable of integrating self-driving autos onto an interconnected web-based grid by 2016. With its Google Earth mapping technology, the company maintains a distinct advantage in technical hardware over its competitors.
Apple, another long-standing leader in technological innovation, is rumored to be developing a self-driving automotive of their own after recently making the news by engaging in a bidding war with Tesla over potential employees, offering as much as a $250,000 signing bonus and a 60 percent salary increase to new employees. The start-up ride-sharing archrivals, Uber & Lyft, are also trying to get in on the action. Both companies have developed a network of vehicles, which you see on your phone every time you open the ‘Uber’ app, that could easily integrate driverless transportation into their system because they already efficiently track and coordinate vehicle movements seamlessly. Uber’s growth strategy in particular made headlines when it’s CEO, Travis Kalanick, shared that his vision is that their service will take over all components of your daily transportation on a ride-sharing based system where you could order a ride to your doorstep, at any time, at a moments notice, for an affordable price.
So, how will these very different companies interact in the market place? One can imagine three plausible scenarios. First, and least exciting, is that traditional auto-giants maintain their foothold in the industry. Self-driving cars from these companies would likely rely almost exclusively on sensors, similar to what cars use today, to navigate roadways. This is feasible primarily because these companies maintain the most time-tested experience in the industry. They also posses the most pull and credibility with Washington regulators who will have to ultimately approve the technology.
Second, and possibly most realistic, is an intersection of companies from different industries in one product. For example, Audi, Mercedes, or Tesla could work together to produce the car that would be equipped with a Google mapping software platform. In this hypothetical world, all automobiles could eventually be linked up on the internet under the Google software package. Cars would navigate roadways both with sensors and by having their movements coordinated by a central database. Eventually, traffic signals could be integrated into the program, allowing for a constant, seamless, perfectly predictable flow of traffic. Simulations of such intelligently controlled intersections indicate that such a system could perform 200–300 times better than current models.
Third, and possibly most mind-boggling, is the complete overthrow of the current automotive industry by innovators such as Apple or Tesla. The end product would be fascinating. In the same way that Apple transformed the way we listen to music or interact with our cell-phone, so too would it transform the way we get around.
Finally, despite all this innovation, the question many people are asking remains: will it even matter? Would a self-driving car improve everyday life or, on a grander scale, the world?
The answer: more than you can imagine.
While the benefits are nearly endless, four distinctly jump to one’s mind: safety; lifestyle; roadway congestion; and urban landscape. Foremost, self-driving cars will save lives. As GM’s former chairman, Bob Lutz, eloquently puts it: “The autonomous car doesn’t drink, doesn’t do drugs, doesn’t text while driving, doesn’t get road rage. Young, autonomous cars don’t want to race other autonomous cars, and they don’t go to sleep.” In 2012, there were 30,800 fatal car crashes in the United States. If self-driving cars were to glitch at the highest level of predicted rates, they would result in roughly 90% fewer fatalities each year. Additionally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates that there are over two million automotive injuries each year in the United States alone. If these could even be halved, over $90 billion in medical expenses will be saved annually.
Additionally, the convenience of self-driving automobiles will be impressive. Imagine spending your morning commute answering emails, setting your calendar, and completing the busy-work of your day. The in-person workday could be abbreviated and consolidated to only the work you need to complete face-to-face with colleagues. For medium-distance travel, imagine foregoing flying to spend a workday in your car while you are transported from Atlanta to Chicago. While these are only two specific examples, the benefits to one’s lifestyle will be far-reaching.
In addition to improving our daily schedule, self-driving cars will likely reduce the number of cars on roadways, lessening traffic congestion, reducing trip time, and helping the environment. A recent University of Michigan study predicts that vehicle ownership could be reduced by as much as 43%. Additionally, as costs fall by eliminating the need for a human driver, ordering a car to your doorstep for all daily trips will become an affordable reality. As a result, ride-sharing car companies will grow rapidly. Instead of purchasing a car for yourself, it will be cheaper and easier to subscribe to a company whose service allows you to order a driverless automobile at a smart-phone apps command. Larry Burns, former head of research for GM, has estimated that such programs would require just 15% as many cars as we own now, cutting cost per mile by 75%. Payment will work similarly to how cell-phones do today with consumers having the option to purchase “pay by the trip” plans or more expansive “unlimited trips per month” plans. Companies will compete to cover geography, similar to how cell-service companies do today with coverage. This is primarily why Uber is envisioned to grow rapidly in the future.
Lastly, decongested roadways and automobiles that can park themselves will drastically alter the urban landscape. Currently, up to 35% of the square mileage of the typical city is occupied with roadways or parking lots. Autonomous vehicles and their lack of human error will result in the condensing of urban centers as these facilities disappear and narrow. For example, research by the Transportation Research Board indicates that autonomous vehicles could increase single-lane highway capacity by upwards of 500%, allowing for the reduction and even elimination of the mega-highways with which we are all too familiar.
Mind-boggling as this all may seem, the reality of self-driving cars exists in the not-so-distant-future. The technology exists to make them a reality, and once that happens, the world around us will change rapidly. The past fifteen years have been a testament to its capability to do so. Today, our 16-year-olds are struggling to learn how to navigate roadways. Tomorrow, our 16-year-olds will be struggling to learn how to operate their GPS mapping technology. Just as your parents likely gave you grief for never learning to drive a stick shift, so too will you likely give your children grief for never learning to drive at all.
– By Connor Quirk