Afghanistan’s Future: Taliban Resurgence and its Implications

By: Bailey Palmer

Soldiers patrol the volatile Korengal Valley in Afghanistan. Photo: The U.S. Army
Soldiers patrol the volatile Korengal Valley in Afghanistan. Photo: The U.S. Army

The Taliban has plagued Afghanistan for decades. During the 1980s, the Taliban emerged from the groups of mujahedeen fighting against the Soviet Union’s control. Originally backed by the United States and Pakistan as part of a Cold War calculus, the Taliban is comprised mostly of Pashtuns, an ethnic group that lives on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. They took control of Afghanistan in the 1990s and established a strict, highly conservative rule, influenced by the ideology of Saudi patrons and Pakistani madrasas. This purist ideology, called Wahhabism, has been exported around by Muslim world by those seeking to justify radical agendas. While not overwhelmingly popular, the Taliban maintained legitimacy for a time simply because of the stability their rule afforded. They were toppled shortly after the 2001 American invasion, but have remained a persistent and bloody thorn in Afghanistan’s side ever since.

As America begins to wind down the longest war in its history, and as Afghanistan anxiously prepares for its departure, the Taliban has mounted a resurgence. The United Nations reports that civilian casualties in the first half of 2014 have increased dramatically in comparison to any year since 2009, when they began gathering data. It says, “The nature of the conflict in Afghanistan is changing in 2014 with an escalation of ground engagements in civilian-populated areas. The impact on civilians, including the most vulnerable Afghans, is proving to be devastating.”

As the Taliban moves towards more indiscriminate tactics, warfare has moved to residential areas. This puts women and children are especially at risk. The Taliban have also moved towards targeting middle class areas and diplomatic quarters. These efforts are aimed at pushing out foreign aid workers and expats, deepening the widespread uncertainty over the future after American withdrawal. At a conference in London in early December, Afghan and NATO officials discussed the upcoming transition period. Recently-elected President Ashraf Ghani stressed his anti-corruption efforts, underlying the concern that aid will dry up after NATO forces dwindle. The majority of Afghanistan’s budget comes from international aid, the reduction of which could reverse hard-fought gains.

While Pentagon officials assured that the uptick in Taliban violence is to be expected given the time of transition, it is nonetheless concerning. Afghan forces can hold their own, but they’re certainly not capable of mounting defenses comparable to American airstrikes. The renewed Taliban efforts come with a whole host of causes that make the situation a highly complex and delicate one to maneuver. Many believe that the trade of five senior Taliban operatives for Bowe Bergdahl, the American soldier taken hostage by the Taliban in 2009 after a rumored desertion, has had critical repercussions. In light of the American exit, the Taliban may have interpreted this trade as American acceptance of defeat. Such a signal may have led to the assumption of impunity and encouraged the Taliban’s civilian-targeted violence. Indeed, if the Afghan military is the only thing stopping them, their assumption of impunity may be correct.

The scores of auxiliary militias roaming the streets, armed with American weapons, present another danger to Afghanistan. Such groups were outfitted to serve the Afghan military and police on an ad hoc basis against the Taliban. However, as American forces are drastically reduced, their ability to monitor these militias will disappear. These armed militias often have unclear allegiances, and their presence is contributing to the general degradation of security in Afghanistan. If the Taliban continues their resurgence, these groups could potentially agitate the situation and make development even more challenging.

However, the recent Taliban massacre of 131 schoolchildren in Peshawar, Pakistan, while sickeningly tragic, may turn the tides against the Taliban. It is widely believed in Afghanistan that many of the top Taliban commandos are based in Pakistan. Terrorism meets little pushback there; indeed, Osama bin Laden, the most senior official of Al Qaeda, was found just miles from the Pakistan Military Academy in Abbottabad. Many assert that Pakistan only selectively combats terrorism, attacking those who mean Pakistan harm, while harboring militant groups who target Afghanistan and India as a ploy to maintain regional power. However, after the atrocity in Peshawar, the importance of destroying the Taliban has become abundantly clear to all parties.

As Pakistan grieves the lost of its children, even the most conservative elements have questioned how much an act could be committed in the name of jihad. This increased national attention has brought the role of religious schools and their militant teachings under scrutiny. These madrasas are quite common in Pakistan and promote radical Islamic thought, breeding sympathies for the Taliban. Western critics have also long raised concerns over the public schooling in Pakistan. Islamized in the 1980s, Pakistan’s schools are widely accused of disseminating half-truths, radical religious thought, and conspiracy theories painting America and India as religious enemies. The media propagates these views, leading large swaths of Pakistanis to sympathize with the Taliban’s claims of jihad.

Yet, in the face of this barbaric attack, unrecognizable to any tenant of Islam, many believe that this to be a turning point in Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban. The Pakistani government has promised with renewed vigor to launch a massive attack against them. The army chief warned: “These terrorists have struck the heart of the nation, but our resolve to tackle this menace has gotten a new lease of life. We will pursue these monsters and their facilitators until they are eliminated for good.” There is, however, less evidence that the Pakistani government will address the radicalization of their schools– arguably the root cause– any time soon. It is in the regime’s interest to maintain a general population easily swayed by religious rhetoric. Despite this, the enhanced military priority alone may be a boon for Afghan forces. Without their ties to Pakistan, the Afghani Taliban may splinter and weaken. If Pakistan takes its military commitment seriously, it could also be the first step in eradicating terrorism, if only a small one. Though exceedingly tragic, the Peshawar attacks may prove a watershed point in the fight against Taliban tyranny.